40The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets.

"In 90 towns where Excello has food markets, natural-food stores specializing in organic food products—products containing no chemical preservatives and made with foods grown without pesticides—have opened nearby as competitors. Surveys of our own customers reveal a growing concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals. Recently our market in Sun City participated in a local food tasting fair, and 75 percent of the fair goers who visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit. Such evidence indicates that to increase our profits, we should begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets."

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  In this argument,the author concludes that we should increase our organic products to gain more profits. To justify this conclusion, the author pointes out that in a local food tasting fair recently 75% of the visitors get the free samples of organic fruit, the author also cites surveys about the growing concern of the customers to the foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals.However, this argument suffers from several doubtful flaws, and is therefore unconvincing.

 In the first place, the result of the survey which shows that the customers have growing concern about organic food is unreliable. The author provides no evidences to imply that the customers in the survey are represented to the whole customers. It’s quite possible that the ones who pay more attention at the organic food are more willing to join such a survey. Unless the author can provide other clear evidences, this survey lends no credible support to the conclusion.

Secondly, the mere fact that 75% of the visitors in the fair goers requested free samples of organic fruit is insufficient evidence to conclude that the visitors were concerned about the organic fruit. Maybe the only reason is they should pay no money to get it. Moreover, 75% is really not a high scale in free-goods distribution.

Thirdly, even if the citizens in Sun City concern about the organic fruit, this argument contains no evidence to support either the citizens in Sun City also concern about other species of organic food or people in other cities concern about them too. It’s entirely possible that the people in Sun City are richer than other cities thus they care more about the food quality.

Finally, even assuming people concern the organic food, there still have no evidence shows they are willing to buy them, not to mention EFM will gain profits. Absent more valid evidences, the conclusion that the EFM will gain profits is indefensible.

In sum, this argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster this conclusion, the author must show that people over the 90 towns are all concern about the organic food and willing to buy them. To better evaluate this argument, we also need more information about the comparison between EFM and its competitors to analyze whether the EFM will gain profits.